The Bot
Trial level
The live window, the forward book, the cross. Where every case is first heard.
Before you go any further
This is a fifteen-minute market. It moves faster than you do.
The Appellate is an instrument for watching the fastest corner of prediction markets there is — Bitcoin, fifteen minutes at a time, settled ninety-six times a day. It is not a game, it is not a shortcut, and it is not income.
This is not for you if:
- Your trigger finger is slow. By the time you've finished deciding, the window has moved. Hesitation here isn't caution — it's a cost.
- You're faint of heart. Any position in this market can go to zero in minutes. Some of ours have. The record on this site shows the losses next to the wins, because that's what a record is.
- You're economically struggling. Rent money, grocery money, bill money, borrowed money — none of it belongs in a fifteen-minute market. Not a little of it. Not "just this once." If you need this to pay off, close the tab. Seriously. We'll be here when your situation is different.
What this site is: every number shown carries its evidence. Reads that haven't earned it are labeled probation, not hidden. Everything is paper until a public, graded record says otherwise — and the misses get posted next to the wins.
If that still sounds like your room, welcome in.
Watch-only evidence cockpit
The Appellate
It watches. It never places a trade.
An evidence cockpit for the Kalshi BTC 15-minute market. Live BRTI against the strike, the line the market price is implying, and every computation graded as it happens.
The gate is human.
BRTI · strike · implied line
Illustration
BRTI
Strike
Implied line
The honest version
Kalshi runs the market. The Appellate is one guy's live read on it. Every call logged, misses included, paper only, nothing promised.
VITAL mode
Five readings. Nothing decorative.
VITAL strips the cockpit down to what a decision actually rests on. Everything else waits outside.
VITAL
Illustration · not live data
The window
--:--
cushion ±—
Time left, and the cushion between price and strike.
The cross
—
Whether price is crossing the strike — quiet, forming, or fired.
The record
PAPER
The paper record, as it stands. Never rounded up.
The floor
—
Room left before the day's floor — the line that stops the day.
Trust
—
feed
How far the feed deserves to be believed, right now.
The clock counts to the next quarter-hour on your device. It shows the shape of a window, not market data.
The decision stream
What the machines computed, as it happens.
Every event lands in a live stream, and every event is graded. Nothing is computed off the record.
Stream
Illustration · not live data
··:··:··BOTwindow read · cross stateGRADE —
··:··:··BOTforward book updatedGRADE —
··:··:··GRADERseat review · reconcileGRADE —
··:··:··COURTcase ruledGRADE —
Court structure
Three benches.
Every case is heard, reviewed, and ruled on, in that order.
The Grader
The record on appeal
Seat reviews, reconcile, breaker distances. This is a paper record, not real-money results, and it is labeled that way everywhere it appears.
The Supreme Court
Final arbiter
An LLM court that rules on cases. It rules. It does not trade.
Transparency
The record is paper.
Every result in The Appellate's record is a paper result. It is tracked, not traded with money, and it says so wherever it is shown.
A record that hides its losses is not a record.
- 01Paper, and labeled as paper.
- 02Misses shown, not buried.
- 03No wins promised. Ever.
Disclosure
The taker fee, in the open.
Kalshi charges a fee every time a taker trades — on the way in and again on the way out. Holding a contract to settlement is free. The fee follows one curve: fee per order = 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent. It peaks at a 50¢ price, where uncertainty is highest: 1.75¢ per contract, each way.
A cost disclosed is a cost you can plan around. A cost buried is a claim waiting to happen.
Worked plainly: 100 contracts at 62¢ pay $1.65 on entry. At 90¢ — or 10¢ — the same 100 contracts pay 63¢. And the rounding has teeth at small size: a single-contract order pays a flat 2¢ at almost any price, because the fee is rounded up per order. The cockpit prints this toll live, every window, next to the prices it is charged on.
The Appellate’s record is stated gross of fees unless a figure is marked NET. Fee model KALSHI-TAKER-v1, series multiplier M=1 assumed — Kalshi’s published fee schedule governs.
- 01Charged on entry and on exit.
- 02Holding to settlement is free.
- 03The record is gross unless marked NET.
Provenance
It began inside a private trading operation, ETP Division. It is becoming a product under Introflective Developers.
Status
Court is open — free for Discord members.
The cockpit opened Friday, October 23, 2026 — free for Johnathan's Discord members, added by hand, one at a time. The Appellate is built in public, misses included.
Members: your access is already live — sign in below with the Google account for the email you gave Johnathan. Not a member yet? Join the waitlist underneath. Joining the list is not membership and does not give access today. If a paid version ever opens, waitlist members hear first.
Member sign-in — open the cockpitDiscord members only. Sign in with Google, using the exact email you gave Johnathan — access is tied to that address. The gate is human.
- Status
- Open — free for Discord members
- Built
- In public
- Opened
- Fri · Oct 23, 2026
- Pricing
- None exists
- The list
- Waitlist open